Czech Republic Adds Prediction Market Kalshi to Illegal Gambling Blacklist

European regulators are tightening the net around international prediction markets. The Czech Ministry of Finance has taken decisive action by adding Kalshi.com to its List of Unauthorised Internet Games, effective September 30, 2026. This decision targets platforms that frame bets on real-world events as financial innovations while bypassing national rules on player protection and anti-money laundering.

This development was expected following the July blacklist of Polymarket. Czech authorities have made it clear that terminology does not shield a product from gambling laws. Whether an activity is called a contract, a derivative, or a financial innovation, it is treated as gambling if money is put at risk on an uncertain outcome. The ruling emphasizes that digital advancements do not grant an exemption from market supervision and oversight.

Numbers and facts

Kalshi's economic reach is substantial. In September 2026 alone, the platform recorded trading volume of approximately EUR 50.3 billion (around USD 59.2 billion). This represents a 48 percent increase compared to August. Kalshi currently dominates the sector, accounting for more than 80 percent of the volume across major monitored prediction platforms. From January 2026 to the end of September, the total volume reached a staggering EUR 203.0 billion.

These figures explain the urgency of the regulatory intervention. A market of this size operating without national oversight poses significant risks according to the authorities. Jan Řehola, Director of the Institute for Gambling Regulation, highlighted the need for a consistent approach against such platforms.

"What matters should not be the name of the product, but its actual substance. If a person puts money at risk on the uncertain outcome of a real-world event, it should not be possible to circumvent the rules simply by calling the bet a contract." - Jan Řehola, Director of the Institute for Gambling Regulation

Background

The debate over where financial technology ends and gambling begins is not limited to Prague. In the United States, Kalshi recently faced legal challenges when a federal appeals court ruled in September that Ohio and Tennessee could apply their state gambling laws to the platform. In Europe, countries like France, Belgium, Romania, Spain, and the Netherlands have already restricted or blocked access to similar unlicensed services. Spain moved against both Polymarket and Kalshi as early as May.

In the Czech Republic, the Institute for Gambling Regulation views Kalshi’s inclusion as a necessary precedent. The goal is to ensure that new digital products cannot evade rules on player protection or market supervision by simply changing their labels. Any entity offering gambling services in the Czech Republic must hold a proper license and fulfill all associated legal obligations.

Why it matters for German players

For players in Germany, the legal situation is clear: Kalshi does not hold a license from the Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder (GGL). Under the Interstate Treaty on Gambling 2021 (GlüStV 2021), betting on non-sporting events is either strictly prohibited or requires specific authorization that these platforms lack. Engaging with unlicensed providers carries risks, as there is no legal guarantee for payouts and no player protection equivalent to the GGL-whitelist standards.

Germany enforces strict safety measures, including a 1,000 euro monthly deposit limit via the LUGAS system and a 1 euro stake limit for slots. Blacklisted providers do not adhere to these national safeguards. German users are strongly advised to only use providers listed on the official GGL whitelist to ensure they are protected by German law and fair play standards.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

The Czech crackdown strengthens the regulated market by removing unlicensed competitors that do not pay taxes or follow protection mandates. Licensed operators in Germany invest heavily in compliance with the GlüStV 2021. The Kalshi case serves as a signal that European authorities are willing to enforce a level playing field. For the industry, it confirms that technological loopholes in prediction markets are not a sustainable legal alternative to regulated gambling.