Zaben Tsakiyar Wa'adi na Amurka na 2026: Kasuwar Hasashe Ta Kusa Cimma Fajin Dala Biliyan 1.6

Harkokin siyasa na yin canjin gaske. Abin da ya kasance yana faruwa a bayan gida ko ta wurin masu bada lamuni na kasashen waje ya zama masana'antar da ta kai biliyoyin daloli masu fasahar zamani. A cibiyar wannan canjin akwai kasuwannin hasashen, inda masu amfani ke cinikin hannun jari bisa ga sakamakon abubuwan da za su faru. Yayin da zaɓen tsakani na Amurka a ranar 3 ga Nuwamba, 2026, ke gabatowa don tantance tattalin Majalisar, ƙimar ciniki na isa ga girma waɗanda ke ba da mamaki har ga ƙwararru. Ba wai kawai game da tsinkayar sakamako ba ne; ya zama nau'in ilimin tarayya wanda ya fi dacewa fiye da ƙuri'un gargajiya.

Wannan yanayi ya samo asali ne daga zaɓen shugaban Amurka na 2024. Yayin da gidajen watsa labarai da yawa suka yi hasashen rashin nasara har zuwa ƙarshe, dandamali kamar Polymarket sun nuna wani yanayi mai ma'ana ga Donald Trump tun da wuri. Shayne Coplan, Shugaba na Polymarket, ya bayyana wannan lokaci a matsayin wani muhimmin lokaci ga dukkan masana'antar. Amintacce da aka samu ta hanyar wannan daidaito yanzu ana nunawa a cikin adadi na yanzu na zaɓen 2026. Yanayin ya canza daga aiki na musamman ga masu sha'awar crypto zuwa wani sanannen al'amari wanda ya ja hankalin masu tsara kuɗi.

Adadi da Bayanai

Binciken ƙididdiga suna nuna wannan girman da ya yi matuƙar ci gaba. A cewar Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC), yanzu akwai kasuwannin fare na tsakani sama da 21,000 a kan dandamali kamar Kalshi da Polymarket. A kwatanta, akwai kasuwanni 463 kawai don takarar majalisa a 2024. Ƙimar ciniki ta riga ta wuce dala miliyan 750 a tsakiyar Oktoba 2026. Masana daga ƙungiyar bincike marar riba ta ACDC sun yi hasashen cewa jimillar kuɗin na iya kaiwa dala biliyan 1.6 kafin zaɓuka su ƙare. Wannan zai zama babbar karuwa idan aka kwatanta da dala miliyan 92.4 da aka yi ciniki a kan kwangilolin zaɓuka marasa shugaban kasa a 2024.

"Wannan zaɓen tsakani zai ja hankali sosai saboda akwai abubuwa da yawa da ke tattare da su. A wannan ma'anar, wannan yana ɗaya daga cikin manyan gwaje-gwaje ga kasuwannin hasashen." - James Surowiecki, Marubuci kuma Kwararre

An saka muhimman hankali kan takarar a Texas, Maine, Michigan, da South Carolina. A Polymarket, alal misali, ana cinikin James Talarico da yiwuwar 63% na zama ɗan takarar Democrat na takarar Sanatan Texas, wanda ya riga ya samar da dala miliyan 4. Daidaito na waɗannan kasuwanni yana da ban mamaki: wani wakilin Polymarket ya bayyana cewa dandamali yana kula da daidaito na 98% kwana ɗaya kafin zaɓe.

Tarihin Baya

Amfani da waɗannan kasuwannin ba shi da cece-kuce. Hukumar Kula da Ciniki ta Amurka (CFTC), wadda Michael Selig ke jagoranta, tana ƙoƙarin sanya waɗannan kwangilolin a matsayin musayar kuɗi kuma ta ƙarƙashin ikon ta kadai. A wata hira da Fox Business, Selig ya bayyana damuwarsa cewa ba za a iya ba da littafin oda a gidan caca ba, saboda hakan ba ya nuna yadda fare na gargajiya ke aiki. A lokaci guda, manyan wasanni na wasanni suna ƙarfafa ƙa'idodinsu. NBA kwanan nan ta haramta wasu ƙarin fare kan 'yan wasan ajiya waɗanda ke samun ƙasa da mintuna 12 na lokacin wasa a kowane wasa don hana magudi. Abin sha'awa, irin waɗannan fare suna ci gaba da kasancewa akan wasu kasuwannin hasashen, wanda ke nuna rarrabuwar kawunan tattara jama'a.

Me yasa yake da mahimmanci ga 'yan wasan Jamus

Ga masu sha'awar caca na Jamus, yanayin yana da bayyane amma yana da ƙuntatawa. Ana hana yin fare siyasa sosai a Jamus ƙarƙashin Yarjejeniyar Jihohi kan Haramtacciyar Haramtacciya ta 2021 (GlüStV 2021). Hukumar Haɗin Gwiwa ta Jihohi kan Haramtacciyar Haramtacciya (GGL) tana ba da izinin yin fare a kan abubuwan wasanni kawai, har ma a lokacin, iyakoki masu tsauri suna amfani. Wurare kamar Polymarket ko Kalshi ba su da lasisin Jamus. Duk wanda ya yi ƙoƙarin yin fare kan zaɓen Amurka daga Jamus yana shiga kasuwar haramtacciya. GGL tana sa ido sosai kan kasuwa kuma tana amfani da kayan aiki kamar tsarin LUGAS don tabbatar da iyakokin ajiya na wata-wata na Yuro 1,000 da kare 'yan wasa. Ana ba da lasisin Jamus ne kawai ga masu samarwa waɗanda suka bi ka'idar Yuro 1 na fare kowane juyawa don ramummuka da kuma haramcin yin fare a kan abubuwan zamantakewa.

Abin da yake nufi ga kasuwancin da ke da lasisin GGL

Masu gudanarwa da aka ba lasisi a Jamus dole ne su yi nazari yayin da biliyoyin kuɗin shiga na ƙasashen waje suka wuce su. Yayin da wuraren Amurka ke girma sosai ta hanyar Midterms, kasuwancin da ke da lasisin GGL suna iyakance ga kasuwancin su na yin fare wasanni da wasanni na kama-da-wane. Koyaya, nasarar kasuwannin hasashen yana nuna yanayin tattara bayanai ta hanyar fare, wanda zai iya tasiri ga muhawara a Turai. A yanzu, masu gudanarwa na Jamus dole ne su bi ka'idojin farar fata don guje wa haɗarin kwangilolinsu. Kare daga cinikin sirri da magudi, wanda NBA ke turawa a halin yanzu ta hanyar ƙarin ƙa'idodin fare, an riga an haɗa su a cikin tsarin a Jamus ta hanyar tsauraran ƙa'idodin GGL.