US Midterms 2026: Nebraska Rejects Sports Betting Amid Political Shift in Texas

The political tremors in the United States are directly impacting the gambling industry. In the latest midterm elections, proponents of legal online sports betting suffered a stinging defeat. In Nebraska, initiatives to open the market failed at the ballot box, proving that even multi-million dollar advertising campaigns by industry leaders are not enough to overturn conservative majorities. As the political map of the US Senate and House of Representatives was redrawn, gambling operators are now looking toward Texas and California with a mix of skepticism and hope.

Personnel decisions in Texas, in particular, could have long-term consequences. For the first time in over three decades, a Democrat, Gina Hinojosa, was elected Governor of the Lone Star State, defeating Republican Greg Abbott. Since her lieutenant governor, Vikki Goodwin, also won—replacing Dan Patrick, a staunch opponent of gambling expansion—a window for new legislation might open. However, the path remains difficult, as constitutional amendments in Texas require high hurdles, including two-thirds approval in the legislature.

Numbers and facts

The financial cost of the failed campaign in Nebraska was immense. The organization Tax Relief Nebraska raised more than $21 million to support Initiatives 440 and 441. US industry heavyweights FanDuel and DraftKings each contributed over $10 million. BetMGM and Fanatics also participated financially. Nevertheless, 54 percent voted against Initiative 440 and 53 percent against Initiative 441. According to Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG), the state is missing out on approximately $8.2 million in potential tax revenue in the first year, based on an estimated Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) of $86.1 million.

In Texas, the dimensions are even larger. The Tax Foundation estimates that the state could generate an annual GGR of up to $3.26 billion if legalized. The potential in California is estimated at an even higher $5.69 billion annually. There, Xavier Becerra was elected to replace Gavin Newsom. Becerra is known as a supporter of tribal sovereignty, which is crucial for the tribal casinos there. The Pechanga Band of Indians supported his campaign with over $2.3 million.

Background

The rejection in Nebraska serves as a signal to the entire US gambling industry. It illustrates that expansion in the US is no longer automatic. While Hinojosa's specific stance on sports betting in Texas is not yet fully defined, her new lieutenant, Vikki Goodwin, has already expressed a keen interest in exploring economic opportunities and tax revenues. Goodwin replaces Dan Patrick, who for years used his influence in the Senate to block any expansion plans.

"Vikki Goodwin has expressed a keen interest in exploring the economic opportunities and potential tax revenues associated with gambling expansion." - Gina Hinojosa, Governor of Texas

In California, tribal casino operators are already looking ahead to 2028. After the failure of various proposals in 2022, the mood in the nation's most populous state remains tense. Becerra's election is seen positively by the tribes, as he traditionally strengthens their rights. However, the hurdle of a public referendum remains, which has often failed in the past due to the conflicting interests of private operators and tribal nations.

Why it matters for German players

Developments in the US show how complex gambling regulation can be. German players interested in international trends can see parallels here to the German market. While in the US each state sets its own rules, Germany has had the State Treaty on Gambling (GlüStV 2021) since 2021. This ensures a level of nationwide security often lacking in the US. In Nebraska, players must continue to rely on illegal offshore providers if they want to bet. In Germany, the Joint Gambling Authority of the States (GGL) protects users by only licensing providers who adhere to strict rules, such as the €1,000 monthly deposit limit and the €1 per spin limit on slots.

For German players, this means: safety comes before speed. While billions in potential are still being debated in Texas, the German whitelist already offers a legally secure environment. The central monitoring system LUGAS ensures that player protection is not just lip service. Anyone playing with a licensed German provider does not have to worry about the payout of their winnings, unlike the unregulated overseas platforms often used in Nebraska.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

German casinos with a GGL license can learn from the US elections that public acceptance is crucial. Transparency and a focus on player protection are the best arguments against regulatory resistance. While US providers like DraftKings and FanDuel invest massive sums in political lobbying, licensed German providers focus on complying with the strict technical guidelines of the GGL. This builds user trust more effectively in the long run than short-term political campaigns.