Spain exams prediction betting, introduces cross-operator deposit limits

The Spanish gaming authority DGOJ and industry experts are intensively discussing the regulation of prediction betting. The central question is whether such bets fall under existing gambling law or require new legislation. A recent Gaming in Spain webinar brought lawyers together to explore the implications for the Spanish market. The DGOJ has already initiated disciplinary action against prediction betting providers, which clarifies its stance on the matter.

An important step was already taken in June 2026: the Council of Ministers approved new deposit limits for online gambling via Royal Decree. These limits are intended to apply across all operators and strengthen player protection. The industry anticipates significant impacts on revenue and player channelization. Developments in Spain could also set a precedent for other European countries, including Germany.

Numbers and facts

Experts from ECIJA and H2 Gambling Capital shed light on the legal classification of prediction betting at a Gaming in Spain webinar on July 6, 2026. According to Camille Gonzálvez, TMT and iGaming lawyer at ECIJA, purely sports-related prediction bets, where players bet against each other and the operator acts only as an intermediary, could fall under the existing Spanish betting framework. "Spanish rules currently permit betting on sporting events structured so that players bet against each other, with the operator acting only as an intermediary," Gonzálvez explained.

In May 2026, the DGOJ initiated disciplinary proceedings against Polymarket and Kalshi and ordered internet providers to block both platforms, arguing that betting on uncertain future outcomes without a Spanish gambling license breaches national law. This case is expected to last three to four months and demonstrates the DGOJ's clear stance. The introduction of cross-operator deposit limits was approved by royal decree on June 23, 2026. A trial version is scheduled to go live on September 25, 2026, with full entry into force on March 25, 2027.

The default limits are set at €700 per day, €1,750 per week, and €3,300 over any four-week period. Josh Hodgson, Chief Operating Officer of H2 Gambling Capital, estimates that this change could cut annual onshore player spending by around 300 million euros. Market channelization, the proportion of players using licensed platforms, could drop from 76% to 74% in 2027, stabilizing near 71% from 2028.

Background

The discussion around prediction betting is not new. Globally, regulatory authorities are monitoring the development of this segment. Countries like Brazil and Portugal are also examining whether their existing gambling laws are sufficient. In Spain, the specific question is whether such bets should be considered classical bets or an independent form of gambling requiring new regulation. The DGOJ is acting proactively to control the market and counter illegal offerings.

In addition to prediction betting and deposit limits, further amendments to the Remote Gambling Act (Law 13/2011) are planned. These include stricter player identification requirements to curb income tax evasion, a registry of approved B2B software suppliers to combat illegal gambling, and further advertising restrictions. These measures require new primary legislation and are still in the parliamentary process, whose timeline is uncertain due to current political dynamics in Spain. Mikel Arana, Director General of Spain's gambling regulator, the DGOJ, will be the keynote speaker at the Gaming in Spain Conference on October 15, 2026, in Madrid, addressing his authority's problem gambling detection algorithm, the rollout of deposit limits, and how prediction betting might fit Spain's current regulatory framework.

Why it matters for German players

While developments in Spain are specific to their market, they offer an interesting point of comparison for German players and regulation here. Germany, with the Glücksspielstaatsvertrag 2021 (GlüStV 2021), has embarked on a path that also focuses on strict player protection and channelization. Similar to Spain with its new cross-operator limits, Germany's Joint Gaming Authority of the Federal States (GGL) is also working to establish uniform standards.

German players benefit from a 1-euro spin limit for online slots and a monthly deposit limit of 1,000 euros, monitored via the LUGAS system. This cross-state blocking system, as well as the 5-minute pause per hour, are instruments that are similar in nature to the Spanish approach, albeit different in implementation. The GGL whitelist ensures that players can only play on websites with a German license, which means a high level of safety and fairness. The Spanish debates show that the issue of player protection remains highly relevant in Europe, and regulatory authorities are constantly striving to adapt and optimize their frameworks. This also protects German players from dubious casino providers without a GGL license.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

For online casinos licensed in Germany, the Spanish developments indicate that the trend towards stricter regulations in Europe continues. The cross-operator deposit limits in Spain reflect the intentions of the GlüStV 2021 to centrally monitor player deposits via LUGAS. GGL casinos must already comply with these strict rules, which creates a competitive advantage over unregulated providers. Spain's experiences with market containment and potential revenue declines could also serve as a learning curve for the GGL to find the balance between player protection and the attractiveness of the regulated market. A highly regulated environment, as in Spain or Germany, requires operators to constantly adapt and invest in compliance structures. However, it increases player confidence in the regulated market in the long run.