MGM and Caesars Shun Prediction Markets to Protect Core Gaming Licenses

The world of prediction markets is booming, but two of the most powerful players in the global gambling sector are pulling the plug. MGM Resorts International and Caesars Entertainment made it clear at the Global Gaming Expo (G2E) in Las Vegas that they will not be entering this sector for the time being. The decision is not a technical issue, but a cold-blooded risk assessment. For companies that generate billions in revenue from traditional casinos and licensed sports betting, the potential threats to their existing licenses outweigh the chance for new market share in so-called event contracts.

MGM in particular was already quite far along in its considerations. Bill Hornbuckle, CEO of MGM Resorts, admitted that his group had seriously considered entering the prediction market business via BetMGM in early 2025. However, the regulatory authorities in Nevada, considered one of the strictest supervisions worldwide, issued a clear warning. The legal gray area in which providers like Kalshi or Polymarket operate could rub off on the clean licenses of the casino operators. Since MGM is expanding globally, the company cannot afford a reprimand in its home market that could have repercussions for international projects.

Numbers and facts

The companies' caution must be understood against the backdrop of massive regulatory problems in 2025. During this period, the Nevada Gaming Commission and the Nevada Gaming Control Board (NGCB) imposed record fines of nearly $27 million against three of the largest operators on the Las Vegas Strip. Caesars Entertainment was ordered to pay $7.8 million in November 2025 because the company allowed illegal bookmaker Mathew Bowyer to play unhindered for over seven years despite obvious red flags. MGM Resorts was hit with an $8.5 million fine in April 2025 for similar failures in anti-money laundering (AML) prevention in connection with Bowyer and Wayne Nix.

"MGM had considered a possible entry in early 2025, but discarded the ideas after warnings from regulators in Nevada." - Bill Hornbuckle, CEO of MGM Resorts International

Tom Reeg, CEO of Caesars, also sees no reason for risky experiments. He pointed out that prediction market platforms often allow bets on things that are ethically or regulatorily questionable. For example, there was a contract betting on the purchase of Caesars in 2026. Reeg criticized that such markets often have no mechanisms to prevent insider trading. If a CEO could bet on the sale of his own company, it would undermine any integrity in the industry.

Background

The core of the dispute lies in the definition of the products. Platforms like Polymarket argue their contracts are financial derivatives and subject to federal commodity supervision (CFTC). The traditional gambling industry vehemently disagrees. Bill Miller, President of the American Gaming Association (AGA), sharply criticized that these providers often bypass taxes and strict mandates for responsible gaming that are standard for licensed operators. Another point of criticism is age: while MGM and Caesars only admit customers 21 and older, some prediction markets allow trading starting at age 18.

In addition, the companies are struggling with technological legacies and security risks. In June 2026, details of severe ransomware attacks that had previously shaken MGM and Caesars became known. MGM refused to pay the ransom, resulting in a 10-day system outage and a loss of approximately $8.4 million per day. Caesars, on the other hand, paid $15 million to prevent the outflow of sensitive customer data. These incidents show how vulnerable the giants' IT infrastructure is, which further complicates entry into highly digital, new betting markets.

Why it matters for German players

For German players, the situation remains clear and safe as long as they stick to providers on the whitelist of the Joint Gambling Authority of the States (GGL). The German State Treaty on Gambling 2021 (GlüStV 2021) sets extremely high hurdles for player protection that US prediction markets could hardly meet at present. While age limits of 18 are being discussed in the US, in Germany, adulthood is strictly required, often with additional verification via systems like LUGAS.

German customers benefit from a monthly deposit limit of 1,000 euros across all providers and the stake limit of 1 euro per spin on virtual slot machines. Such mechanisms for addiction prevention are completely lacking in unregulated prediction platforms. Anyone playing with a provider licensed in Germany is protected from the risks that moved MGM and Caesars to stay away from US prediction markets: legal uncertainty and a lack of control over the integrity of the bets.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

The reluctance of the US giants indirectly strengthens the model of strict regulation as we know it in Germany. GGL-licensed casinos must prove that they monitor every transaction and every player closely. The massive AML fines in Nevada show that even established brands can fail if the compliance culture is not right. For German providers, this means: security and transparency are the most important currencies. Anyone betting on prediction markets without clear rules risks their livelihood. The focus remains on the core business: safe slots and sports betting under state supervision.