Kalshi Defies CFTC Warning: Random Bonuses of Up to $2,000 Under Scrutiny

The debate over the regulation of prediction markets in the United States has reached a new turning point. Kalshi, a leading player in the event contract space, is sticking to controversial bonus structures despite a clear warning issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in August 2026. The regulatory body views chance-based rewards that resemble gambling as a violation of standards for licensed exchanges. Particularly noteworthy is the role of major media houses acting as partners while simultaneously profiting from affiliate commissions.

Since August 12, an advisory from the CFTC's Division of Market Oversight has stated that rewards should not depend on chance. Kalshi largely ignored this and continued to offer promo codes in October where users receive a random bonus amount after depositing $10 and trading $25. The range for these rewards spans from $10 to a maximum of $2,000. Critics point out that the odds for the various tiers are often not transparently communicated, which reinforces the gambling nature of the promotion.

Numbers and facts

The specific figures behind the scenes illustrate the scale of the conflict. In a previous version of a $500 bonus, internal documents showed that 70 percent of claimants received only $15, while just 0.35 percent landed the maximum $500 reward. For the current $2,000 promotions, such probabilities have not been published. Another sensitive point is the volume: CNN estimated that Kalshi customers aged 18 to 21 had already traded $5.4 billion on the platform this year at that point. This figure fuels concerns among politicians that prediction markets could normalize gambling among young adults.

Kalshi responded partially to the pressure and filed documents with the CFTC on September 28 to terminate its Volume Incentive Program no earlier than October 13. However, the sign-up bonuses remain active. The relationship with CBS News, which uses Kalshi as its official prediction market sponsor for midterm election data, is under scrutiny. Meanwhile, CBS Sports publishes articles with affiliate links, earning commissions for new sign-ups.

Background

The conflict has been brewing for some time. As early as May, five Democratic lawmakers warned of the dangers of such partnerships between newsrooms and betting platforms. The CFTC emphasized in its August letter that exchanges must not use spin-the-wheel promotions or other game-like features to determine reward amounts.

„Rewards should not use spin-the-wheel promotions or other offers in which the amount of a reward is determined through randomized or game-like features.“ - Unnamed Staff Member, CFTC Division of Market Oversight

Additionally, there were investigations by the New York City Council into Kalshi, Polymarket, and other providers regarding their advertising practices. The legal situation remains complex, as the CFTC advisory reflects staff views but is technically not yet a formal Commission rule. Kalshi itself emphasizes in filings that it supports clear regulation against markets based on terrorism or assassinations but opposes a categorical ban on event contracts, arguing it would drive liquidity to offshore markets.

Why it matters for German players

For German players, the situation at Kalshi serves primarily as a warning signal. Kalshi does not hold a license from the Gemeinsame Glucksspielbehorde der Lander (GGL) and is therefore not a legal provider in the German market. The German State Treaty on Gambling 2021 (GlüStV 2021) sets extremely narrow limits on what is considered permissible play. In particular, the combination of financial betting and random bonuses, as practiced by Kalshi, would be unthinkable in Germany under GGL supervision. In Germany, a strict stake limit of 1 Euro per spin applies to online slots, along with a monthly deposit limit of 1,000 Euros across all providers, monitored via the LUGAS central database.

Anyone wishing to play legally in Germany must strictly adhere to the GGL whitelist. Providers without this concession are not subject to German player protection, which can lead to a total loss of legal recourse in the event of disputes over bonuses or payouts. Kalshi operates under US CFTC law, which provides no protection for German private individuals. Furthermore, prediction markets in the form described here are often classified in Germany as illegal sports betting or prohibited financial betting.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

German casinos with a GGL license must strictly adhere to transparency rules. Chance-based bonuses with undefined probabilities would lead to immediate sanctions. While Kalshi experiments with affiliate models and variable bonuses in the US, German operators must ensure their bonus terms are clear and fair to the average consumer. The Kalshi example shows the importance of central oversight to prevent financial products from sliding into unregulated gambling. German providers can clearly differentiate themselves from such gray market practices through their legal certainty and compliance with LUGAS requirements.