From Single Bets to Parlays: Massive Shift in US Betting Behavior Revealed

The landscape of sports betting has undergone a radical transformation in recent years. Where simple bets on a winner or loser once dominated, complex combinations now rule the screens of users. A study published in Finance Research Letters in September 2026 analyzed a massive dataset of 547 million NFL wagers. The results are clear: the share of parlays increased from approximately 33.59% in 2018 to an impressive 72.51% in 2023. This represents a growth of nearly 39 percentage points.

Interestingly, this shift is not just due to new customers entering the market. Long-term existing customers have also changed their behavior. While single-leg bets accounted for two-thirds of the volume in 2018, they have now shrunk to near insignificance. Researchers found that same-game parlays, which combine different events within a single match, have a huge share in this growth. This category was practically non-existent in 2018 and made up 32.05% of all wagers by 2023.

Numbers and facts

The profitability of this development for bookmakers is enormous. Adam Bjorn, CEO of Plannatech, provided deep insight into the economic reality behind these figures. While traditional straight bets leave operators with a margin in the mid-single digits, the world of parlays looks quite different. According to Bjorn, sportsbooks typically hold between 20% and 30% of the stake on same-game parlays.

"The math explains the push. Parlays are the most profitable product in the building, so the industry will keep putting them front and center." - Adam Bjorn, CEO of Plannatech

These financial incentives lead apps to be specifically designed so that parlays are the easiest thing to find and complete. Often, a single click on the home screen is enough to add a pre-made combination to the bet slip. The study also shows that parlay usage during periods with active promotions such as odds boosts or free bets was about 19 percentage points higher than in the pre-2021 period when such bonuses were rarer.

Background

Why do players engage in bets with mathematically poorer odds of success? Anthony Lucas, a professor at UNLV’s William F. Harrah College of Hospitality, sees a psychological component he calls the 'something-for-nothing proposition.' Players prefer to invest a small amount, such as $5 or $10, for the chance to win hundreds or thousands, rather than risking high sums on low odds. It is the classic lottery mentality that has found its way into sports betting.

Richard Borghesi, the lead author of the study, emphasized to industry media that while one can observe what people bet on, one cannot directly see what they are thinking. Nevertheless, it is clear that the technical evolution of betting apps has removed a barrier. Previously, customers in Las Vegas had to physically fill out neon-colored cards. Today, tips are pushed directly to the smartphone, tailored precisely to their profile.

Why it matters for German players

For German customers registered with operators licensed by the Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder (GGL), strict rules from the State Treaty on Gambling 2021 apply. While the parlay market in the US seems almost limitless, German regulation focuses more heavily on player protection. The LUGAS database monitors a monthly deposit limit of 1,000 euros, which is intended to limit the risk of high losses from risky parlays. Nevertheless, parlays are legal and popular in Germany as well. However, German players should note that the mathematical house edge for these bets is often significantly higher than for single bets. While a stake limit of 1 euro per spin only applies to virtual slots, the GGL also warns against aggressive marketing in sports betting. Those betting on German white-list portals benefit at least from the security that winnings are guaranteed to be paid out and fair odds calculations are in place, unlike with dubious MGA or Curacao providers.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

Licensed German operators must balance attractive betting products with strict advertising guidelines. Since parlays promise a high margin, there is a strong incentive to promote them through bonus actions. However, the GGL monitors this closely: aggressive bonuses that entice players into risky behavior can be sanctioned. Nevertheless, the US trend shows where the journey is heading: personalization through data analysis will also increase in Germany. If an operator knows that a customer likes to play Bundesliga parlays, they will place them prominently within legal limits. The goal remains to increase Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) while keeping the compliance with strict German limits as a top priority.