iGaming Growth: North America Outpaces Europe Amid Regulatory Pressure

The global online gambling landscape is undergoing a massive transformation. While some regions are opening their markets with new momentum, others are significantly tightening their grip. A current industry report illustrates that the worldwide online gambling market is set to grow to a volume of $415.5 billion by 2028. This corresponds to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9 percent. However, these global figures hide a deep rift between continents. North America, in particular, is becoming the new engine of the industry, while once-dominant Europe struggles with the consequences of stricter regulation and rising tax burdens.

The technological shift is especially striking. Mobile platforms act as the primary catalyst for this upswing. Forecasts suggest that the share of mobile devices in onshore Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) will climb from 45 percent in the current year 2026 to an impressive 78 percent in 2028. This means that almost four out of every five dollars will soon be wagered via smartphones and tablets. This development challenges providers to radically adapt their technology to mobile applications to avoid losing touch in a highly competitive environment.

Numbers and facts

Europe remains the largest regulated market worldwide but is losing speed. GGR is forecast to rise from $85.3 billion in 2026 to $95.2 billion in 2028. This represents an annual increase of only 6 percent. In direct comparison, North America shines with a growth rate of 15 percent. An increase from $58.1 billion to $76.6 billion is expected there by 2028. A key driver in the US was the year 2025, when online GGR grew by 27.6 percent to a record $10.74 billion. Michigan, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania dominated this total, accounting for nearly 90 percent of the revenue.

Latin America also shows strong dynamics, driven by channelization in Brazil. There, the regulated market share rose from 15 percent in 2022 to a projected 65 percent in 2026. Africa, on the other hand, struggles with high transaction fees despite an expected growth of 12 percent, often accounting for 3 to 6 percent of deposits. In South Africa, court rulings restricting casino games in 2025 led to an estimated 62 percent of activity migrating to the black market, resulting in annual losses of roughly R50 billion.

Background

The reason for slower growth in Europe lies in the so-called regulatory squeeze. Over 30 European jurisdictions have introduced limit-setting measures. In the Netherlands, for example, the regulated channel share dropped below 50 percent in the first half of 2025 after the tax was increased to 37.8 percent of GGR. Industry experts warn that overly aggressive tax models and strict product restrictions drive players directly into the arms of unlicensed operators. These offer no taxes, follow no rules, and are overwhelming competition for licensed platforms if the legal experience becomes too unattractive.

"What worries me is that some policymakers still underestimate how quickly players can migrate to the black market if the regulated experience becomes less competitive." - Gonzalo Perez, CEO at Apuesta Total

In the US, the situation remains fragmented. While sports betting is already permitted in 38 states, only seven states have fully authorized online casinos. Here, market growth is understood more as a marathon than a sprint. Delays at the legislative level often arise because various stakeholders have not yet found a common plan. Nevertheless, the US attracts massive investment as the potential for full regulation across all states is considered gigantic.

Why it matters for German players

For German players, the regulatory strictness mentioned in the report has long been a daily reality. Germany is explicitly cited as an example of harsh product restrictions. Here, the rules of the State Treaty on Gambling (GlüStV 2021) apply particularly intensively. These include the stake limit of a maximum of 1 Euro per round on virtual slot machines and the mandatory five-second pause between spins. In addition, the Joint Gambling Authority of the States (GGL) monitors the cross-operator deposit limit of 1,000 Euro per month via the LUGAS system. These measures are intended to strengthen player protection but limit the gaming experience compared to international markets. German customers should therefore exclusively use offers on the official GGL whitelist to guarantee legal certainty and fair chances of winning.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

German casinos with a GGL license are under enormous competitive pressure. The report makes it clear that Germany, with its tough rules like the 1,000 Euro limit and spin delays, holds a special role internationally. For operators, this means they must manage their margins extremely efficiently, as the risk of migration to MGA or Curacao providers without these limits is high. The challenge for GGL casinos is to provide an attractive mobile experience despite the legal shackles, as the trend is inexorably moving toward the smartphone. Only those who manage to build high brand loyalty within the narrow legal framework will survive in the long term in the saturated European market.