Young Adults at Risk: Researchers Warn of Online Gambling and Prediction Markets

In the United States, mental health professionals are issuing urgent warnings as mobile platforms simplify access to gambling-like products for young adults. While state-licensed sportsbooks in Pennsylvania generally require participants to be at least 21 years old, prediction market platforms like Kalshi utilize regulatory nuances to accept customers as young as 18. This discrepancy allows young people, who are legally barred from traditional sports betting, to wager money on event outcomes under the guise of trading financial derivatives. The psychological barrier is significantly lowered as the language of investing suggests that specialized knowledge can mitigate loss, creating a false sense of security for inexperienced users.

Dr. Cynthia Grant, Vice President of Clinical at Birches Health, observes a dangerous trend in her daily practice. Many patients commit to stopping sports betting only to switch to prediction markets because they perceive these products as fundamentally different from gambling. However, from a clinical perspective, the terminology matters little. Whether described as betting or trading, the symptoms remain the same: obsessive checking of results, chasing losses, and struggling to stop despite severe financial or social consequences. The clinical reality is that the platform is secondary once the behavior evolves into a clinical disorder.

Numbers and facts

Statistical evaluations for 2026 present a concerning outlook. Dr. Cynthia Grant reports that new patients at Birches Health in Pennsylvania increased by more than 125 percent between the second and third quarters of 2026. Nationally, the company noted a 200 percent year-over-year increase in patients mentioning prediction markets during initial assessments. An assessment by Penn State for 2025 estimates that between 17 and 30 percent of Pennsylvania adults gambled online in the previous year. Even more alarming are figures from a 2024 Fairleigh Dickinson University poll, which found that 10 percent of men aged 18 to 30 scored in the problem-gambling range, compared to only 3 percent of the general electorate.

"We don’t treat platforms, we treat people. The time to intervene is not once someone has already lost thousands of dollars or spent their tuition money. It’s really when they’re starting to lose control over how much time and money that they’re spending." - Cynthia Grant, VP of Clinical at Birches Health

Background

A significant obstacle for prevention efforts is the lack of precise data for the 18 to 24 age demographic. Gillian Russell, an assistant research professor at Penn State, explains that younger people are less likely to respond to telephone surveys and often identify primarily as employees rather than students when asked. This makes it difficult to generate reliable prevalence estimates for commuters versus on-campus residents. Furthermore, researchers warn against underestimating the social context. In residential campus settings, peer groups can encourage risky behavior but can also serve as a vital source for alternative activities and support. To lower the barrier for seeking help, universities are now using unconventional methods like printing support information on water bottles or offering text-based chat options favored by students.

Why it matters for German players

In Germany, the regulatory landscape is significantly more restrictive due to the Interstate Treaty on Gambling 2021 (GlüStV 2021). Players using providers licensed by the Joint Gambling Authority of the States (GGL) are subject to a strict monthly deposit limit, usually capped at 1,000 euros. Additionally, the LUGAS central monitoring system ensures that players cannot be active on multiple platforms simultaneously. These measures are designed to prevent the levels of over-indebtedness and addiction currently being observed in the US. Nevertheless, young adults in Germany should remain cautious of speculative financial products that use gambling mechanics but are categorized differently under law. The 1 euro per spin limit for online slots and the ban on autoplay are further German safeguards intended to reduce risk.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

For operators holding a German GGL license, the developments in the US validate the strict regulatory approach taken in Germany. Casinos in Germany are required to use automated systems to detect early warning signs of problem gambling and initiate necessary interventions. While the US is currently seeing calls for advertising regulations similar to those for tobacco or alcohol, such rules are already firmly established in Germany. The GGL meticulously monitors compliance with these player protection measures. Operators are encouraged to continuously improve their early detection algorithms to avoid regulatory sanctions and ensure the long-term safety of their customers. The US data clearly indicates that the combination of online and offline gambling carries the highest risk for developing a disorder.