Prediction Markets: Polymarket Leads Search Demand Despite Kalshi's Volume Dominance

The U.S. prediction market landscape is currently characterized by a fascinating paradox. While one platform controls the vast majority of capital flow, another remains the dominant force in the minds of internet users. According to data from iGaming analytics firm Blask, covering the period from January to August 2026, Polymarket continues to lead in branded search demand despite a decline in its Brand’s Accumulated Power (BAP) metric. Polymarket saw a drop of 16.56 percentage points but still retained a 57.8 percent share of search attention by the end of August.

This shift in market dynamics is noteworthy. Kalshi managed to increase its BAP share significantly, rising from 23.1 percent to 35.8 percent. Together, these two giants account for over 93 percent of branded search demand within the prediction market category. While smaller competitors like Novig showed impressive growth—rising 64.9 percent in the Blask Index between January and July—they remain minor players compared to the two market leaders. The gap between what people search for on Google and where they actually commit their funds has rarely been so pronounced.

Numbers and facts

When examining actual trading volume, the narrative shifts entirely. Data from The Block indicates that Kalshi recorded a staggering $37.17 billion in volume during August 2026. In comparison, Polymarket and Polymarket US combined for only $8.16 billion. This massive disparity suggests that Kalshi possesses significantly higher liquidity and execution efficiency, whereas Polymarket benefits from its global brand recognition and status as an industry pioneer. Blask noted that trading volume is a metric for liquidity and execution, while BAP measures pure consumer attention.

The 2026 World Cup served as a prime example of these diverging trends. Reuters reported that Kalshi generated approximately $27 billion in trading volume during the tournament. TickerTracker provided a more conservative estimate of $13.8 billion for specific World Cup markets, excluding combo markets. Despite these high numbers, the yearly peak for search demand did not occur during the World Cup. Instead, the Blask Index reached its highest point on March 2, 2026, coinciding with the first primary elections in Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas. On that day, search volume was four times higher than the mid-May baseline.

Background

Why does Polymarket attract more searches when users are trading more on Kalshi? Blask suggests this is related to different stages of customer engagement. Many users active during the World Cup were likely existing customers who traded directly through mobile apps, eliminating the need to search for the brand name. Sensor Tower found that Kalshi’s average weekly downloads during the first three weeks of the World Cup were nearly double its Super Bowl LX levels. Polymarket saw even higher engagement, with downloads nearly four times higher than its Super Bowl baseline.

„Trading volume is a liquidity/execution metric; BAP is an attention metric.“ - Spokesperson for Blask, iGaming analytics firm

Specialization also plays a role. While major sportsbooks like DraftKings or FanDuel dominate their respective fields, they register very little search demand specifically for prediction markets. Kalshi and Polymarket exist almost exclusively as prediction platforms, meaning nearly every search for their brand is attributed to this sector.

Why it matters for German players

For users in Germany, the legal status of prediction markets like Polymarket or Kalshi is complex. Gambling in Germany is strictly regulated by the State Treaty on Gambling 2021 (GlüStV 2021). This treaty defines which types of betting are permitted. Conventional prediction markets, which often operate on a crypto basis or allow betting on political events, generally do not hold a license from the Joint Gambling Authority of the States (GGL). German players should be careful to only use operators listed on the official GGL whitelist.

Licensed operators must adhere to strict player protection measures, such as a monthly deposit limit of 1,000 Euros via the LUGAS system and a 1 Euro stake limit per spin for virtual slots. Since prediction markets are often classified as financial derivatives or bets on non-sporting events, they frequently operate in a legal gray area or are prohibited in Germany. Accessing such platforms from Germany means players lack the legal protection of domestic supervision and may face issues with withdrawals or legal complications.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

The report demonstrates that brand recognition is a valuable asset that must be supported by strong app integration and user retention. Once players are registered within an app, their reliance on search engines decreases, which can lower acquisition costs over time. However, German casinos must strictly follow advertising guidelines that prohibit political or social betting. The trend toward prediction markets in the U.S. might eventually put pressure on German regulators to open markets for more innovative products, provided that player protection remains a priority.