Prediction Markets Surge but Traditional Sportsbooks Hold Steady in September

The US sports betting landscape is currently witnessing a fascinating era of coexistence. While new prediction market platforms report record-breaking numbers, established bookmakers are proving remarkably resilient. In September 2026, coinciding with the return of the football season, betting handle across 15 key US states remained virtually flat. This indicates that traditional operators are holding their ground even as a fast-growing rival enters the fray with aggressive growth rates.

The dynamic between these two sectors is particularly fueled by the NFL and college sports. Although there were slight declines in August, September brought the hoped-for stabilization. It appears that fans' hunger for sports betting is large enough to feed both traditional bookmakers and prediction trading platforms. However, regional differences show that volume does not always equate to profit.

Numbers and facts

A detailed analysis of results from 15 states shows a total betting handle of approximately $11.11 billion for September. This represents a minimal 0.3% decrease compared to the previous year. The picture was split: seven states saw increases in handle, seven reported declines, and Iowa remained virtually unchanged. In contrast, prediction markets exploded. Kalshi, one of the market leaders, generated a notional trading volume of $60.28 billion in September, a 56.4% increase over August. In total, the four largest prediction exchanges reached a trading volume of $75.5 billion.

However, caution is advised when making direct comparisons. While sportsbook handle measures the actual amount wagered by bettors, prediction markets use notional volume. This counts every contract at its $1 settlement value, regardless of whether the trader paid only a few cents for it. Nevertheless, the activity remains impressive. On the first full NFL weekend from September 12-13 alone, Kalshi generated $4.89 billion in trading volume.

Background

A key factor for bookmakers' balance sheets is the hold rate—the percentage of wagers retained by the operator after paying out winnings. Significant fluctuations were seen here in September. In New York, betting handle rose by 5%, but gross gaming revenue (GGR) fell by 17.7% to $159.4 million. The reason: the hold rate dropped from 8.47% the previous year to 6.64% now.

"The figures raise an important question for the U.S. gambling industry: Are prediction markets already taking significant business away from sportsbooks, or is football generating enough demand to support both?" - American Gaming Association (AGA) analysis

In Pennsylvania, handle fell by 6.1%, while taxable revenue soared by over 50% to $44.7 million. These discrepancies highlight that a bookmaker's success depends heavily on sporting outcomes and margins, not just pure betting interest. The American Gaming Association had projected $29.5 billion in legal NFL wagers for the season, almost exactly matching the previous year's level.

Why it matters for German players

For German bettors, the situation in the US offers an interesting look at market evolution, even though the legal framework here is significantly stricter. In Germany, the market is regulated by the 2021 Interstate Treaty on Gambling (GlüStV 2021). While prediction markets in the US grow as financial instruments or trading platforms, the focus of the German Federal School Authority (GGL) is on strict player protection and channelization. For German players, this means they should only bet with providers listed on the official GGL whitelist.

Strict limits apply in Germany: the monthly deposit limit is €1,000 across all providers, monitored by the LUGAS system. Additionally, stakes for online slots are limited to €1 per spin. Prediction markets in their US form are currently not permitted as gambling substitutes for private investors in Germany. Those who want to be safe should exclusively use licensed German bookmakers who pay taxes and adhere to strict addiction prevention rules. The stability of US sportsbooks shows, however, that traditional sports betting remains a core product despite new competition.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

For German operators with a GGL license, the development in the US means that while innovation can shake up the market, the core sports betting business has a loyal base. German providers must hold their own within the tight constraints of the GlüStV 2021, including advertising restrictions and technical hurdles like LUGAS and OASIS. The success of combination bets (combos), which accounted for 58% of activity on Kalshi in September, is also reflected in Germany, where parlay bets are among the most popular products. GGL-licensed casinos offer the advantage of absolute legal certainty, even if they cannot compete with the astronomical trading volumes of US prediction markets.