2026 US Midterms: Prediction Market Volume Nears $1.6 Billion Milestone

The landscape of political wagering is undergoing a fundamental transformation. What used to occur in backrooms or through offshore bookmakers has evolved into a high-tech, multi-billion dollar industry. At the heart of this shift are prediction markets, where users trade shares based on the outcome of future events. As the US Midterm elections on November 3, 2026, approach to determine the composition of Congress, trading volumes are reaching dimensions that surprise even seasoned experts. It is no longer just about guessing outcomes; it has become a form of collective intelligence that often proves more accurate than traditional polling.

This trend was significantly fueled by the 2024 US Presidential Election. While many established media outlets predicted a dead heat until the very end, platforms like Polymarket showed a clear trend in favor of Donald Trump early on. Shayne Coplan, CEO of Polymarket, described this moment as an inflection point for the entire industry. The credibility gained through this accuracy is now reflected in the current figures for the 2026 Midterms. The dynamic has shifted from a niche activity for crypto enthusiasts to a mass phenomenon that has caught the full attention of financial regulators.

Numbers and facts

Statistical analyses highlight this explosive growth. According to the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC), there are now more than 21,000 different midterm betting markets across platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. For comparison, there were only 463 such markets for congressional races in 2024. The notional trading volume had already surpassed $750 million by mid-October 2026. Experts from the nonprofit research group ACDC predict that total volume could reach up to $1.6 billion by the time the elections conclude. This would be a massive increase compared to the $92.4 million traded on non-presidential election contracts in 2024.

"These midterms are going to generate a lot of interest because there’s a lot at stake in them. In that way, this is one of the biggest tests for prediction markets." - James Surowiecki, Author and Expert

Particular focus is placed on races in Texas, Maine, Michigan, and South Carolina. On Polymarket, for instance, James Talarico is traded with a 63% probability of becoming the Democratic nominee for the Texas Senate race, already generating $4 million in volume. The accuracy of these markets is remarkable: a Polymarket spokesperson stated that the platform maintains a 98% accuracy rate one day before an election.

Background

The rise of these markets is not without controversy. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), chaired by Michael Selig, is increasingly attempting to classify these contracts as financial swaps and bring them under its exclusive jurisdiction. In an interview with Fox Business, Selig expressed concern that one cannot offer an order book in a casino, as that does not reflect how traditional wagers work. Simultaneously, professional sports leagues are tightening their rules. The NBA recently banned certain prop bets on reserve players who receive less than 12 minutes of playing time per game to prevent manipulation. Interestingly, such bets remain available on some prediction markets, highlighting the regulatory divide.

Why it matters for German players

For German gambling enthusiasts, the situation is clear but restrictive. Political betting is strictly prohibited in Germany under the current Interstate Treaty on Gambling 2021 (GlüStV 2021). The Joint Gambling Authority of the Laender (GGL) only permits betting on sporting events, and even then, strict limits apply. Platforms like Polymarket or Kalshi do not hold a German license. Anyone attempting to bet on US elections from Germany is entering the illegal market. The GGL strictly monitors the market and uses tools like the LUGAS system to ensure monthly deposit limits of 1,000 euros and player protection. German licenses are only granted to providers who adhere to the 1-euro stake limit per spin for slots and the ban on social event betting.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

Licensed German operators must watch as billions in international revenue bypass them. While US platforms grow massively through the Midterms, GGL-licensed casinos are restricted to their core business of sports betting and virtual slot games. However, the success of prediction markets indicates a trend toward information gathering through wagering, which could eventually influence the debate in Europe. For now, German operators must strictly adhere to the whitelist to avoid risking their concessions. Protection against insider trading and manipulation, currently pushed by the NBA through tighter prop bet rules, is already structurally anchored in Germany through strict GGL regulations.