World Cup 2026 Records: Prediction Markets Explode with Billion-Dollar Volumes

The 2026 FIFA World Cup has marked a turning point in the global gambling landscape. Over the 39-day tournament, prediction markets reached unprecedented heights, attracting millions of downloads for apps like Kalshi and Polymarket. For the first time since the PASPA ruling in 2018, North America hosted the event, providing a fertile ground for legal betting environments. In regions where traditional sportsbooks are still unauthorized, these prediction exchanges provided a massive alternative for users eager to engage with the tournament's outcomes.

Kalshi emerged as a dominant force during this period, capitalizing on high-profile sponsorships and marketing. The company reported adding three million new users throughout the World Cup. Trading volume per match saw a staggering increase, starting at $80 million during the group stages and peaking at $795 million for the final match. This trend highlights a shift in consumer behavior where users treat sports outcomes as tradable assets rather than simple wagers.

Numbers and facts

The scale of these markets is best illustrated by the sheer volume of trades. Ticker Tracker noted that $13.8 billion was traded on Kalshi's specific World Cup markets. When adding parlays into the mix, an additional $19.8 billion was recorded, meaning parlays accounted for 36.78% of all trades on the platform. Single World Cup markets represented 25.4% of volume, which actually outperformed all other combined sports categories at 24.08%. Polymarket also hit milestones, with its international exchange setting a monthly record of $10.8 billion in June.

Profit distribution on these platforms shows a high degree of volatility for the average user. On Polymarket, out of 193,000 accounts, 66.7% ended the tournament with losses. Conversely, a small group of 54 accounts earned a combined $22 million, with five specific accounts netting profits of over $1 million each. Alan Maman, Kalshi’s CMO, reported that the platform reached over 269,000 daily downloads during the event. This surge was aided by Messi's promotion on Instagram and a deal with ADIPredictStreet, allowing for prominent advertising during the matches.

Background

It is crucial to distinguish between the 'notional volume' reported by prediction markets and the 'handle' reported by traditional sportsbooks. Volume figures can be misleading due to how market makers operate. For example, while $4.5 million was traded on Haiti, the actual amount at risk by users was only $4,500 because the contracts were priced at $0.01. This discrepancy often makes direct comparisons difficult for analysts.

"Kalshi had better odds than leading sportsbooks during the tournament." - Alan Maman, CMO at Kalshi

Despite the growth, the industry faces significant legal challenges. In the US, states like Nevada and Michigan have already moved to block Kalshi, and ongoing litigation in Wisconsin and Tennessee centers on whether these platforms should be regulated under gambling laws or commodities exchange acts. The total market volume across major platforms grew from under $100 million per month in early 2024 to over $13 billion by late 2025, showing that regardless of legal hurdles, the appetite for these markets is immense.

Why it matters for German players

For residents in Germany, the rise of these platforms is primarily an international observation rather than a local opportunity. The German State Treaty on Gambling (GlüStV 2021) enforces strict regulations. Currently, neither Kalshi nor Polymarket holds a license from the GGL (Joint Gambling Authority of the States). Using such platforms can result in lack of legal protection and potential legal repercussions. German law mandates a strict 1,000 Euro monthly deposit limit and a 1 Euro limit on slot spins to ensure player safety. The LUGAS system monitors these limits across all licensed operators. Prediction markets lack these safeguards, making them inherently riskier for those prone to gambling harm.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

German licensed operators must recognize the competitive threat posed by these new financial-style betting products. While prediction markets are not currently legal in Germany, they attract a demographic that finds traditional casino games or sports betting less engaging. GGL-licensed sites should focus on improving their digital offerings to maintain interest while staying within the legal framework. Furthermore, the GGL is expected to monitor these trends closely to prevent unlicensed foreign entities from encroaching on the German market, potentially using tools like IP blocking to protect the regulated domestic market.