Polymarket Shares Trading Data: A Strategic Shift for Academic Prediction Research

The world of prediction markets is undergoing an unprecedented transformation. What once began as a niche phenomenon for crypto enthusiasts has evolved into a multi-billion dollar sector that increasingly influences traditional reporting. Now, Polymarket is taking a further step by opening its digital archives to the academic world. A new company-funded research institute will give doctoral researchers access to market records to study forecast accuracy and market design in depth. This comes at a time when market prices appear more often in news coverage and risk analysis, while academics still debate how reliable those signals truly are.

The program is built around academic fellowships, where researchers are expected to control their own questions, methods, and publication decisions. To avoid conflicts of interest, participants are barred from trading on Polymarket or similar platforms during their work with the institute. The goal is clearly defined: the validity of prediction markets is to be strengthened through external expertise, particularly in areas such as price formation, liquidity, cryptography, and macroeconomic forecasting. The institute will be led by Kai Brusch, Polymarket's head of data, supported by Brian Jabarian, an assistant professor at Carnegie Mellon University, who reportedly receives no personal compensation for this role.

Numbers and facts

A look at the raw figures illustrates the relevance of this research initiative. In 2025, total notional trading volume across major prediction platforms reached a record level of over $44 billion. Polymarket alone recorded a volume of around $21.5 billion between January and November 2025. The growth is rapid: the number of transactions rose from about 240,000 in early 2024 to over 43 million by late 2025. The user base also exploded from 4,000 to over 600,000 monthly active traders. A key indicator for the quality of these markets is the average Brier score, which measures forecast accuracy. Here, the average score sits around 0.09, signaling a high level of predictive quality.

„The research list is broad. It includes market accuracy, price formation, liquidity, resolution integrity, cryptography, security, artificial intelligence, elections and macroeconomic forecasting.“ - Kai Brusch, Managing Director of the Polymarket Institute

Background

Polymarket's decision is not surprising, as competitor Kalshi established a similar research unit in 2025. Access to data is planned to expand through a suite of APIs, covering not just headline prices but also order books, historical time series, and on-chain aggregates. This is crucial because academic studies in this field often depend on incomplete or fragmented records. Prices alone do not explain who moved the market or whether liquidity fluctuations distorted the result. By placing code and datasets in public repositories, the results are intended to be replicable by third parties.

However, financial dependence remains a topic of discussion. Although researchers retain the right to publish their findings independently, the institute's credibility will depend on whether studies can be published that contradict Polymarket's claims. The market is highly concentrated: Polymarket and Kalshi together account for 85 to 90 percent of the total volume. While Kalshi is authorized in the US by the CFTC and recently expanded into Canada, Polymarket operates under a different regulatory framework, making the scientific investigation of market integrity even more important.

Why it matters for German players

For German users, the legal situation regarding prediction markets like Polymarket is complex. According to the Interstate Treaty on Gambling 2021 (GlüStV 2021), providers of online gambling or betting require a license from the Joint Gambling Authority of the States (GGL). Polymarket currently does not hold such a German license. In Germany, regulation focuses on player protection, reflected in strict limits: the cross-provider deposit limit of 1,000 euros per month and the 1 euro per spin limit for virtual slots are central pillars. As prediction markets could theoretically be classified as bets on events, they fall under strict German supervision.

The LUGAS IT system monitors compliance with these limits in Germany. Platforms without a GGL license do not offer this protection and are therefore considered illegal. German players should only use offers listed on the official white-list of the GGL. While the research results of the new institute may contribute to the global acceptance of prediction markets, they do not change the current prohibitive effect of German law for unlicensed operators. Anyone wishing to bet legally in Germany must stick to licensed bookmakers who guarantee state-verified security.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

Licensed German providers can benefit indirectly from the findings of the Polymarket Institute. If science proves that prediction markets are more efficient than traditional odds calculations, German bookmakers could adapt these mechanisms for their own odds models. Nevertheless, the operational difference remains vast. While Polymarket relies on crypto infrastructure and global liquidity, GGL casinos are bound by narrow regulatory constraints. However, Polymarket's transparency offensive sets new standards for the entire industry. German providers, who already focus heavily on data integrity and player protection, will closely watch how the scientific reputation of this new asset class develops.