Polymarket Expansion: Perpetual Futures for Crypto, Oil, and Stocks Launched

Polymarket, widely recognized as the world's leading prediction market platform, is taking a significant step in its corporate evolution. With the launch of a new perpetual futures interface, the company is moving deep into the territory of established crypto exchanges and derivatives platforms. The new offering is aimed at international users and includes ten different markets at launch, covering a wide range of assets. This includes not only well-known cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum but also traditional stock indices and commodities.

Particularly noteworthy is the inclusion of SPCX, a contract tracking the price of SpaceX shares. As SpaceX is a private company, this offers traders a rare opportunity to speculate on the performance of the aerospace company without owning actual shares. However, the platform explicitly emphasizes that trading these contracts does not grant any ownership rights or voting shares in the underlying companies. They are pure contracts for difference aimed at price movements, remaining linked to the index price through regular funding payments between buyers and sellers.

Numbers and facts

The technical infrastructure behind the new offering has been massively upgraded. Polymarket states it has increased its throughput to 200,000 orders per second, roughly 15 times its previous capacity. The goal is to eventually process over 400,000 orders per second. This is necessary to ensure precise execution amidst the high volatility of leveraged products. Regarding leverage, the platform sets a cap of 20x, though exact limits may vary depending on the market and position size.

The ten initial markets include Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Hyperliquid’s HYPE token. In the commodities sector, gold, silver, and the oil benchmarks Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) are available. The portfolio is rounded out by the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. To prevent price manipulation during settlement, the system utilizes Chainlink Data Streams for time-weighted pricing. This is intended to ensure that short-term spikes just before settlement do not lead to unfair liquidations.

Background

The push into perpetual futures is a direct response to growing competition and the demand for 24/7 trading opportunities. While traditional exchanges close on weekends, the crypto market never sleeps. Polymarket is entering direct competition here with giants like Binance or Hyperliquid. An interesting aspect is the duel with competitor Kalshi. While Polymarket provides its offering offshore for international customers, Kalshi is currently seeking approval from the U.S. regulator CFTC for similar oil futures.

„Polymarket has introduced perpetual futures, adding leveraged continuous trading alongside its traditional event-based prediction contracts." - Mia Gindis, Journalist at Bloomberg

This development shows that the lines between pure betting on probabilities and professional financial trading are becoming increasingly blurred. For Polymarket, it is also a way to bypass regulatory constraints in the U.S. by focusing on global markets. Since a settlement with the CFTC in 2002, U.S. customers have been excluded from many of the platform's products.

Why it matters for German players

For German users, the legal situation regarding such products is extremely complex. Perpetual futures with high leverage fall under the supervision of BaFin in Germany and are often classified as high-risk contracts for difference (CFDs). Importantly, Polymarket is not an online casino licensed by the Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder (GGL). The State Treaty on Gambling 2021 (GlüStV 2021) primarily regulates virtual slot machines, online poker, and sports betting. However, since Polymarket is often perceived as a prediction market containing betting elements, users are operating in a gray area.

Anyone wishing to play legally in Germany should rely on the official GGL whitelist. The providers listed there adhere to strict player protection rules, such as the monthly deposit limit of 1,000 euros via the LUGAS system and the 1 euro per spin limit for slots. Such protection mechanisms are completely absent from international crypto platforms like Polymarket. There is no automatic loss limitation through state supervision, which can quickly lead to a total loss of invested capital with 20x leverage.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

German licensed operators view such developments with concern, as high-risk financial products often target a similar audience as sports betting or casino games. While GGL casinos are extremely strictly regulated by LUGAS and OASIS, platforms like Polymarket offer fast, often anonymous access to massive profit and loss opportunities. For the German regulated market, this means that the pressure for players seeking higher limits and riskier products to migrate could increase. Nevertheless, the security of a German license remains the only way to legally claim winnings and effectively utilize gambling addiction prevention.