Novig Reports Record Start: Over $125 Million Trading Volume in One Week

The prediction market sector is currently witnessing massive momentum. Novig, a new player in this space, has released figures that are drawing significant industry attention. In the first week following its nationwide launch, the platform generated over $125 million in sports event contract trades. This positions the company at the forefront of a segment that differs fundamentally from traditional sports betting, as customers trade directly against each other rather than a bookmaker.

This start is particularly impressive given the seasonal timing. August is considered one of the quietest months in the US sports calendar, as major leagues like the NFL and NBA are in their off-season. Nevertheless, Novig managed to generate immense liquidity through sports event contracts. According to company claims, this volume significantly exceeds the early figures reported by rivals such as Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, and Underdog. This indicates high acceptance of the peer-to-peer model where the platform serves as infrastructure.

Numbers and facts

Details of the launch reveal the source of the volume. Approximately one-third of the trading volume came from parlays, showing that even professional trading platforms benefit from traditional recreational betting preferences. The most popular sport during this period was baseball. Jacob Fortinsky, CEO and co-founder of Novig, provided insights into the peak values of the opening days. On a single day, volume reached a high of $26.3 million.

The company operates on a solid financial foundation. In February, it closed a Series B funding round worth $75 million, bringing its total capital to over $105 million. This financial backing is necessary to navigate a challenging regulatory environment. While Novig received Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) approval in June, other US providers continue to face legal battles with state actors.

"August is one of the slowest months on the sports calendar. And in our first week, Novig did $125M+ in trading volume. That’s especially meaningful when you consider we’re a 21+ platform, and intentionally not capturing the entire market." - Jacob Fortinsky, CEO of Novig

Background

A divided picture is emerging in the industry. While Novig celebrates success, other actors are pulling back or scaling down their plans. Truth Social, the platform owned by Donald Trump, has significantly reduced its original plans for a prediction market in collaboration with Crypto.com. Similarly, ForecastEx, an Interactive Brokers subsidiary, ceased offering sports contracts in March after volume slumped following a brief surge driven by Robinhood users.

Another massive player is ADI Predictstreet, the official partner of the FIFA World Cup 2026. This provider paid $150 million for the FIFA partnership alone. In its first 18 days post-launch, it recorded around 126,000 trades. This suggests market consolidation: specialized trading platforms like Novig on one side, and massive global event partnerships on the other, where Kalshi and Polymarket have already generated volumes of $1 billion and $4 billion respectively for World Cup winner markets.

Why it matters for German players

For German players, the situation is complex. Prediction markets like Novig or Polymarket operate as event exchanges. However, gambling in Germany is governed by the strict Interstate Treaty on Gambling (GlüStV 2021). Providers on the official GGL whitelist must adhere to rigid rules, including a monthly deposit limit of 1,000 euros via the LUGAS system and a one-euro stake limit per spin on slots.

Prediction markets in the form offered by Novig are currently not available with a GGL license in Germany. The peer-to-peer trading model is often viewed critically by regulators due to its similarity to financial betting. German users should be cautious: betting with unlicensed providers offers no legal protection. Those wishing to play safely should use only GGL-licensed bookmakers connected to the OASIS exclusion system.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

Established German casinos and bookmakers are monitoring these developments closely. The high volumes at Novig demonstrate that customers seek innovative formats like peer-to-peer trading. For GGL-licensed providers, this implies potential pressure to innovate. However, since every type of bet must be individually approved in Germany and parlay or live markets are strictly regulated, it remains to be seen if exchange models will ever enter the legal German market. For now, business remains stable for traditional providers as long as they meet high GGL safety standards.