Macquarie G2E Analysis: Gaming Resilience Persists Despite Uneven Market Strength

The glitz of Las Vegas and the sprawling regional casino markets of the United States present a paradoxical picture in autumn 2026. Following intensive meetings at the Global Gaming Expo (G2E), Macquarie analysts conclude that while the industry remains resilient, this strength is built on uneven ground. Chad Beynon and his team met with representatives from over 20 companies to assess the state of the approximately $175 billion regulated US gaming sector. The result is a nuanced view that sees clear winners among hardware suppliers but sends warning signals from the tourism sector.

Particularly striking is the discrepancy between pure gaming operations and the hotel business. In Las Vegas, revenue per available room (RevPAR) recently fell by 6.9 percent, while visitation dropped by 4.3 percent in August. Nevertheless, gaming revenue on the famous Strip increased by 0.7 percent in the same month. This suggests that guests who travel despite the summer heat and economic concerns are spending more per capita in the casinos. However, the question remains how long gaming enjoyment can compensate for the weakness in the hospitality sector.

Numbers and facts

Forecasts for the coming years are nevertheless promising for certain segments. Macquarie expects slot gross gaming revenue (GGR) to reach $104 billion by 2026. This would represent 4 percent year-over-year growth. A key driver of this development is technological progress. Companies like Light & Wonder are increasingly using Artificial Intelligence to increase efficiency.

„Management told Macquarie that AI has cut the time needed to port a game across platforms from six to eight weeks to about 17 hours.“ - Chad Beynon, Analyst at Macquarie Capital

In addition to Light & Wonder, Aristocrat is also showing strong performance. The company is focusing on new cabinet designs and digital distribution channels to gain market share. In the second quarter, gaming operations revenue at Light & Wonder rose by 18 percent, underlining the trend toward premium products and leased machines. This strategy makes suppliers less dependent on general casino traffic, as they can capture more floor space through innovation.

Background

A new area of tension is emerging through so-called prediction markets. Data providers such as Genius Sports and Sportradar see long-term potential in the millions here by providing official data and pricing models for platforms like Kalshi or Polymarket. Sportradar expects tens of millions in revenue from this sector this year. While industry giants like Flutter and DraftKings argue that these markets supplement sports betting, concerns about cannibalization remain. So far, there are few reliable studies proving whether prediction markets attract new customers or merely divert budget from traditional sportsbooks.

Regulatory risks are meanwhile showing up drastically in Brazil. Following a presidential decree in late September 2026, Flutter expects a revenue decline of approximately $70 million for the coming year. Such sudden political turns advise caution, even if the US market appears more stable in comparison. Nevertheless, regional trends there are also mixed. In August, regional casinos reported a year-over-year revenue decline of 1.9 percent for the first time since December 2025.

Why it matters for German players

For German casino fans, these global trends are of great importance as technical innovations often find their way to Europe with a time lag. While AI-supported porting in the US leads to a flood of new titles, the German market remains strictly regulated by the State Treaty on Gambling 2021 (GlüStV 2021). German players benefit from a high level of protection but must live with strict limits. The deposit limit of 1,000 euros per month and the maximum stake of 1 euro per spin on virtual slots are hurdles that do not exist in this form in the US. However, the technical acceleration seen at Light & Wonder ensures that the selection of games in German GGL-licensed casinos is also growing faster and becoming higher in quality.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

Operators with a license from the Joint Gambling Authority of the Federal States (GGL) face the challenge of complying with strict LUGAS and OASIS requirements despite technical innovations. The efficiency gains through AI in game development described by Macquarie could lead to GGL casinos being able to offer their customers certified new content more quickly. The focus on "premium content" pursued by Aristocrat and Light & Wonder aligns with the goal of German regulation to create an attractive but safe channeling offer. Casinos without a German license, such as those from MGA or Curacao regions, often try to lure players with technically outdated or unregulated copies but do not offer the legal certainty and player protection guaranteed by the German system.