Netherlands: Gambling tax increase falls short of expectations

What happened

The Dutch gambling authority Ksa announced that the tax increase for online gambling has not met its targets. This is a severe disappointment in The Hague. Much more money was expected. The treasury had anticipated significant sums. These additional revenues are now not materializing. We are talking about tens of millions of euros here. The figures speak clearly. Many millions of euros were expected annually. Now, it is much less.

For 2025, an additional 108 million euros were projected. For 2026, even 216 million euros. However, current data shows that these targets are being widely missed. Reality looks different. This is a setback for the government. It had relied on these revenues. They planned firmly with them for projects and the budget. Now, they must reallocate resources. Our editorial team is not surprised. We see similar problems elsewhere.

Background

Online gambling in the Netherlands has been regulated since 2021. The law created a framework for licenses and taxation. The idea was to control the market. At the same time, it aimed to improve player protection. And, of course, generate tax revenue. Tax policy changed over time. The goal was to collect more money. This led to the tax increase. The tax rate was raised. The aim was to heavily tax legal providers. Illegal offerings were intended to become less attractive. Unfortunately, this plan does not seem to be working out entirely. Players sometimes switch to unregulated offerings. This is a known issue. We debate this repeatedly in Germany, too. A tax rate that is too high deters players. They then end up in unlicensed casinos.

In the Netherlands, there is strict regulation. The Ksa oversees the market. It issues licenses. It monitors compliance with the rules. This also includes player protection. Advertisers must adhere to rules. This is good and important. Only this way can a fair market be created. But the balance must be right. Between regulation, player protection, and economic attractiveness. If the state takes too much, attractiveness suffers. This can lead to players migrating. They then seek out casinos without high taxes. This is a vicious circle. In the end, the state loses revenue. And player protection also suffers because there is no control in unregulated casinos.

Why it matters for German players

What happens in the Netherlands is also interesting for German players. We have a similar situation here. Since July 2021, Germany has had the State Treaty on Gambling. It brought strict rules. There is also taxation of online slots in Germany. Currently, this is 5.3 percent of the stake. Some view this tax critically. It could drive players to foreign providers. Providers with MGA or Curacao licenses then attract with higher payout rates. They do not have to pay this tax. This gives them a competitive advantage. This is bad for the channeling mandate. The state wants to steer players into the legal market. If the conditions are poor, that does not work. The experience from the Netherlands confirms this. High taxes can be counterproductive. They harm the legal offering. This is an important point for politicians. One must be careful. Otherwise, players will be lost. And with them, control and player protection.

In Germany, however, there are also positive examples. Casinos like jackpotpiraten.de or crazybuzzer.de adhere to the rules. They show that a regulated market is possible. One just has to find the balance. Players expect a fair offer. This includes fair payout rates. If taxes depress these rates too much, it becomes difficult. Lawmakers must understand this. Otherwise, the black market industry is played into their hands.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

The experiences from the Netherlands should give the Joint Gambling Authority of the Federal States (GGL) pause for thought. Too aggressive a course in taxation can backfire. The GGL has the task of channeling the market. It wants to lead players into the legal market. This is a noble goal. For this, the legal market must be attractive. It must stand out from illegal providers. This cannot only be done with security. Economic attractiveness also plays a role. High taxes make offers more expensive. Players feel this directly. They get less for the same money. This is not a good way. It could lead to fewer players playing at GGL-licensed providers. Providers like merkur-slots.de or loewen-play.de invest heavily in licenses and compliance. They bear a high responsibility. They expect fair conditions. Otherwise, they cannot be successful. This is a matter of balancing for politicians. Revenue must be generated. But not at any cost. A healthy market is more important. And this needs players. No players, no revenue. No players, no player protection. We must learn from the mistakes of other countries.