Kalshi Pro: Prediction Markets Turn into High Performance Trading for Traders

Prediction market giant Kalshi has launched a new platform called Kalshi Pro. The platform is specifically designed to meet the needs of high-volume traders. It allows them to participate in multiple markets simultaneously.

Kalshi is known for its enormous trading volumes. During this year's Super Bowl, over $500 million in trading volume was recorded on Kalshi markets on a single Sunday.

Numbers and facts

Kalshi Pro is intended to help users execute their trading strategies more efficiently. This is achieved by enabling participation in multiple prediction markets at the same time. The launch follows a period of rapid growth for Kalshi. The Super Bowl was a high point in trading. Kalshi recorded $500,171,547 in trading volume on Super Bowl sports event contracts. This was based on company-reported figures. This made it the most successful Super Bowl in the platform's history. Side markets, such as those for halftime songs or advertisers, also attracted significant attention.

Less than an hour before kickoff, Kalshi reported over $325 million in volume. Trading continued to climb throughout the game. The winner markets, specifically the Seattle-New England contract, dominated trading activity. Seattle, the eventual winner, was the favorite throughout the contract, trading at approximately a 67-33 split.

Kalshi reported that the majority of trading focused on game-related markets. There was high liquidity both before kickoff and during live play. A rapid increase in trading near kickoff and during the game caused delays. Luana Lopes Lara, co-founder of Kalshi, confirmed the issue on X.

The opening song market became the largest prop market by far. The settlement volume was about $113.5 million. Of this, approximately $81 million was traded on Super Bowl Sunday alone. Social media rumors caused some songs to gain popularity. The Super Bowl advertising market generated the second-highest volume among novelty markets, at $72.2 million. Companies like Him & Hers, Gemini, and Pepsi traded at 95 percent or higher for most of the day.

Background

Prediction markets, also known as event markets, allow users to bet on the outcome of future events. These markets leverage the collective intelligence of crowds. They often provide more accurate predictions than individual experts. Unlike traditional sports betting, prediction markets do not only focus on sporting events. They also include bets on political outcomes, economic indicators, or technological developments. The exact mechanisms can vary, but fundamentally, participants buy or sell contracts representing a specific outcome. The price of these contracts reflects the probability of an event.

Kalshi operates event contract markets approved by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Kalshi's expansion is remarkable. The company offers its services in 140 countries. This includes Canada, where Kalshi cooperates with Wealthsimple. There, almost 4,000 Kalshi-based event contracts are offered via the Wealthsimple Predict App.

Other platforms like Polymarket are also active. A trader on Polymarket lost almost one million US dollars when Cape Verde achieved a 0-0 draw against Spain at the World Cup (Source 3). Another trader won 4.7 million US dollars on a 400,000 US dollar bet that Spain would not defeat Cape Verde. These examples show the enormous potential for gains, but also for losses in these markets.

The expansion and diversification of prediction markets into various sectors demonstrate the growing interest in this type of trading. This includes not only sports but also politics and economics. The platforms also attract increasingly large sums.

Why it matters for German players

For German players, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are usually not directly accessible, at least not within the framework of German gambling regulation. The German State Treaty on Gambling 2021 (GlüStV 2021) has reorganized online gambling in Germany. The GlüStV 2021 sets strict rules. This particularly concerns online casinos and sports betting. Only providers with a license from the Joint Gambling Authority of the Federal States (GGL) are allowed. These can be found on the so-called whitelist. Prediction markets, such as those offered by Kalshi, do not directly fall under the definition of sports betting or classic gambling within the meaning of the GlüStV.

They are often classified as financial products or derivatives, depending on their specific form. Nevertheless, if accessible in Germany, they are subject to strict financial market laws. Providers without a German GGL license are illegal in Germany. German players should therefore be cautious. Deposits could be lost. Legal action is often difficult. There are also no player protection measures that comply with the GGL. These include the deposit limit of 1,000 euros per month and the stake limit of 1 euro per spin for online slots. The central self-exclusion system LUGAS, which aims to protect players from excessive gambling, also does not apply here.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

For GGL-licensed casinos in Germany, developments at Kalshi and other prediction platforms have no direct impact on daily operations. GGL casinos must adhere to the strict requirements of the State Treaty on Gambling 2021. The focus here is on player protection and addiction prevention. GGL casinos typically offer classic casino games such as slots, roulette, and blackjack - and sports betting. These strictly regulated markets are clearly separated from the less regulated or differently classified prediction markets. Any overlap in the player base is unlikely, as the products are very different. However, prediction markets could be perceived as competition for player attention in the long term.

“Kalshi is not providing market-making services to ADI Predictstreet, nor is it investing in ADI Chain.” - Elisabeth Diana, Head of Communications at Kalshi, as quoted by Gambling Insider

This statement shows that Kalshi draws clear boundaries. Such demarcations are also important for GGL casinos. They must clearly position their offerings as regulated and safe. This is a crucial advantage over unregulated alternatives.