Kalshi and ADI Predictstreet: More Appearance than Reality in World Cup Partnership?

Reports of a far-reaching partnership between prediction market platforms Kalshi and ADI Predictstreet for the 2026 FIFA World Cup were apparently exaggerated. Contrary to portrayals in the New York Times and Bloomberg, Kalshi denies a deep entanglement. The truth seems to lie somewhere in the middle. It is likely more about a clever marketing strategy.

Kalshi clarified that it neither provides liquidity for ADI Predictstreet nor invests in ADI Chain. Any future use of Kalshi's markets by ADI is merely a possibility, not an existing agreement. This clarification comes after some media outlets falsely assumed Kalshi would supply ADI Predictstreet with the necessary funds to address its low trading volume.

Numbers and facts

A key point of misunderstanding concerns market-making and order flow. Market-making means directly providing liquidity on both buy and sell sides. Order-flow routing, on the other hand, directs users to another platform without necessarily providing liquidity itself. Kalshi denies engaging in market-making for ADI Predictstreet. Also, order-flow routing, as reported by the New York Times, is not currently happening according to Kalshi, but could be an option in the future. Elisabeth Diana, Kalshi's Head of Communications, commented:

“The NYT mention is that we might in the future let ADI use our markets for their volume – similar to Coinbase and Robinhood.” - Elisabeth Diana, Head of Communications at Kalshi

The sheer numbers speak volumes about the different reaches of the two platforms. For the World Cup quarter-final between the USA and Belgium, ADI Predictstreet attracted a volume of only $422,491, while Kalshi recorded a remarkable $17.3 million for the same market. There was also a glaring discrepancy in cumulative bets on the World Cup winner on June 26, 2026: ADI Predictstreet reached $58,600, while Kalshi exceeded $583 million. This underscores ADI Predictstreet's urgent need for momentum and users.

ADI Predictstreet reportedly invested $150 million to become a FIFA World Cup sponsor. Kalshi, however, allegedly paid only $20 million for the co-branding partnership. A significant price difference for a collaboration that has not yet brought ADI Predictstreet the desired success.

Another aspect is the underlying technology: ADI Predictstreet uses the year-old ADI Chain blockchain for the decentralized settlement of its event contracts. The native currency of the blockchain, the ADI Coin, has a market capitalization of $204 million with a 24-hour volume of $5.15 million. On-chain activity is relatively low, indicating increased speculation.

Background

The partnership, which in reality seems more like a co-branding cooperation, highlights the different strengths and needs of the two companies. Macquarie Capital analyst Chad Beynon aptly summarizes it:

“We think this partnership says more about ADI’s need for liquidity than about Kalshi’s need for marketing.” - Chad Beynon, Head of US Research at Macquarie Capital

Beynon suggests that ADI Predictstreet may have acquired a valuable asset – the FIFA rights – but lacked the user base and liquidity to fully monetize it. Kalshi, on the other hand, has ample liquidity and momentum but no direct FIFA relationship. This complementarity formed the basis of the collaboration. For now, Kalshi appears to be the clear winner, having secured massive marketing reach at a favorable price. In the long term, ADI Predictstreet's success depends on whether this relationship evolves into genuine liquidity sharing and infrastructure integration, rather than remaining just a marketing arrangement.

It is known that ADI Predictstreet and ADI Chain are part of International Holding Co., led by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, who also heads the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) sovereign wealth fund with assets valued at $1 trillion. This suggests that ADI Predictstreet may be playing a long game to build users and liquidity, even if initial volumes are disappointing.

The platform only received its gambling license in April of this year from Gibraltar. The British overseas territory was the first location to license a prediction market like ADI Predictstreet. Nevertheless, ADI Predictstreet currently seems to be struggling with low numbers. However, the international project has already drawn the attention of the German regulator. The Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder (GGL) has launched an official investigation into ADI Predictstreet's advertising practices during the World Cup. The platform does not hold a German license. Its presence is seen as a potential violation of gambling laws and advertising regulations in Germany.

Why it matters for German players

For German players, this development means they must continue to focus on approved and regulated providers. ADI Predictstreet, despite making international headlines, is not licensed in Germany. The State Treaty on Gambling 2021 (GlüStV 2021) sets clear rules for online gambling. Providers need a license from the Joint Gambling Authority of the Federal States (GGL) to operate legally in the German market. These licenses are subject to strict conditions designed to protect players.

This includes, for example, a deposit limit of a maximum of 1,000 euros per month, which is monitored via the central limit system LUGAS. The betting limit of 1 euro per spin on slot machines in online casinos is another such measure. German players should consult the GGL whitelist to ensure they are playing with a legal and safe provider. Playing with unlicensed providers carries significant risks, as they are not subject to German consumer protection guidelines, and there is no legal recourse in case of a dispute.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

For GGL-licensed casinos and betting providers in Germany, the ADI Predictstreet case confirms the strict regulatory framework. The GGL's investigation demonstrates its active stance against unlicensed advertising and offers. This builds trust among players who stick to legal providers. At the same time, it increases pressure on companies that try to enter the German market without a valid license. Transparency and strict adherence to rules are paramount for GGL casinos to maintain their licenses and customer trust. The focus on player protection and regulation in Germany remains high, which is beneficial for established and reputable providers.