Kazakhstan Sandbox Test: ITS Launches Event Contracts for Bitcoin and SpaceX

The financial landscape in Central Asia is witnessing a bold move into prediction markets. International Trading System Limited (ITS) launched four new event contracts on September 8. These contracts operate on a binary outcome: if the specified event occurs, the contract settles at $1. If it does not, it settles at zero. During the trading period, prices fluctuate between $0.01 and $0.99, reflecting the market's collective estimation of the event's probability.

This experiment is conducted within the Astana Financial Services Authority (AFSA) FinTech Lab Sandbox. This controlled environment allows for the testing of innovative financial products under real market conditions with predefined limits. The initial contracts cover high-profile topics such as Bitcoin price movements and SpaceX shares, alongside macroeconomic indicators. Notably, one contract was recently triggered when the U.S. Federal Reserve decided on September 16 to raise its target range to 3.75-4.00 percent.

Numbers and facts

The scale of ITS operations is substantial. In 2025, the company reported a trading volume exceeding $14 billion. Through 23 participating institutions across seven countries, including Bulgaria, Armenia, and Cyprus, approximately 1.2 million investors have access to the platform. However, the new event contracts are subject to stricter access rules. Participation is limited to professional and certain semi-professional clients who must be at least 21 years old. Margin trading is prohibited, meaning positions must be fully collateralized to prevent leverage-induced losses beyond the initial investment.

"The launch of Prediction Market is an important step in the development of ITS's product offering and the region's financial infrastructure. Financial markets have learned to trade asset prices. Today, we are adding another dimension - the ability to trade event probabilities." - Kurmet Orazayev, CEO of ITS

Background

The regulatory framework in Kazakhstan remains rigorous. The AFSA currently permits contracts only based on securities, digital assets, commodities, exchange rates, and interest rates. Future possibilities include economic data such as inflation or GDP. Crucially, the current test phase explicitly forbids betting on sports, elections, weather, or celebrity news. This distinguishes the ITS approach from common prediction markets like Polymarket, which often gain notoriety through political wagering.

ITS leverages an extensive infrastructure with trading sessions lasting nearly 19 hours daily. This allows investors to react to global events as activity shifts from Asian markets to the West. With over 3,200 instruments available, including ETFs and U.S.-listed securities, the company is a regional powerhouse. Its license, number AFSA-A-LA-2023-0006, underscores its ambition to provide exotic financial derivatives within a regulated multilateral trading facility.

Why it matters for German players

For users in Germany, this specific ITS offering is currently unavailable as the platform operates under the jurisdiction of the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC) without a German license. In Germany, online gambling and event-based wagering are governed by the Interstate Treaty on Gambling 2021 (GlüStV 2021). The Joint Gambling Authority of the States (GGL) maintains a whitelist of providers that adhere to strict player protection rules. These include a 1,000 Euro monthly deposit limit via the LUGAS system and a 1 Euro per spin limit for virtual slots. Bets on Bitcoin prices or interest rates are generally classified as financial derivatives in Germany, falling under BaFin supervision rather than the GGL. Nevertheless, the development in Kazakhstan highlights a global trend where the lines between financial speculation and wagering are increasingly blurred.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

German casinos with a GGL license must remain focused on their core business, as offering financial bets or binary options within an online casino is not permitted under GlüStV 2021. While platforms like ITS can experiment in a sandbox, the rules for German operators are rigid. Innovations in gamifying financial products could eventually pressure traditional betting markets by attracting younger, tech-savvy audiences interested in crypto and tech stocks like SpaceX. GGL-licensed operators must ensure their offerings remain clearly separated from financial speculation to avoid risking their permits.