Brokerage Giant IG Group Applies for UK Gambling License to Launch Prediction Markets

IG Group, a leading name in the online brokerage industry, is making a significant strategic move. The London-listed company has officially applied for a gambling license in the United Kingdom. Its objective is to establish prediction markets that go far beyond traditional financial trading. Starting in early 2027, customers are expected to be able to wager on outcomes in sports, politics, and entertainment. This step illustrates how the lines between investing and betting are increasingly blurring in today's digital economy.

The expansion is occurring in phases and is closely tied to regulatory hurdles. As early as the fourth quarter of 2026, IG Group intends to launch financial prediction markets for professional clients in the UK. These involve positions on financial events that may fall under the oversight of the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). However, for planned bets on football matches, election results, or award ceremonies, the UK Gambling Commission (UKGC) holds jurisdiction. IG Group is thus aligning itself with a February 2026 clarification by the UKGC, which stated that many prediction market models fall under the definition of a betting intermediary.

Numbers and facts

A central pillar of the global strategy is the proposed acquisition of Underdog, a US company specializing in daily fantasy sports and prediction markets. This deal carries a potential total consideration of approximately $1.3 billion. The transaction was announced in July 2026 and is expected to close in late 2026 or early 2027. The economic relevance of this realignment is evidenced by recent business figures: the number of active UK consumer clients grew twice as fast as the rest of the division over the past 21 months. Furthermore, multi-product customers generate about three times the average revenue per user (ARPU) compared to single-product customers.

Breon Corcoran, CEO of IG Group, sees the convergence of markets as the future of the company. In a statement during a capital markets event on October 22, he emphasized the potential of this development:

"Trading, investing and entertainment are converging, and IG is well placed to capitalise on the opportunity. Today we will set out how we will deliver our next phase of growth – broadening and enriching our propositions, investing in our brands and increasing efficiency." - Breon Corcoran, CEO of IG Group

Background

IG Group has reorganized its operations into three divisions: IG Consumer, IG Securities, and tastytrade. This restructuring is intended to support international growth and facilitate the integration of trading, investment, and crypto services. The need for diversification was also highlighted by a 14 percent year-over-year drop in third-quarter revenue. By entering the sports and political betting arena, the company seeks to tap into new audiences and reduce reliance on financial market volatility. In the US, the tastytrade arm has already launched financial prediction markets, though without sports contracts.

Why it matters for German players

For German customers, nothing changes in the short term, as the application specifically relates to the British market. In Germany, the legal situation is strictly defined by the State Treaty on Gambling 2021 (GlüStV 2021). Providers of sports betting or other gambling services must be listed on the so-called whitelist of the Joint Gambling Authority of the States (GGL). Prediction markets, as planned by IG, would have to be classified and licensed as bets in Germany, which would be regulatorily complex due to the strict separation of financial products and gambling. German players at licensed providers benefit from protective measures such as the cross-provider deposit limit of 1,000 euros per month and the stake limit of 1 euro per round for slots. The connection to LUGAS and OASIS also ensures that player protection is the top priority. An offer from IG Group without a GGL license would be illegal for German users.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

Should a financial giant like IG Group ever target the German market, competitive pressure on existing GGL-licensed operators would increase significantly. The massive capital strength and technological infrastructure of an established broker could shake up the sports betting and specialty betting market. Currently, however, the GGL is heavily focused on enforcing the GlüStV 2021, particularly regarding player protection and combating black market offers from Malta or Curacao. A reputable actor already regulated by the FCA would likely seek the legal route via a GGL license, which could strengthen the legal market. Nevertheless, it remains to be seen whether IG Group will extend its strategy beyond the borders of the UK and the US into the restrictive continental EU market.