ADI Predictstreet: FIFA Partner Pursues Grand Strategy Despite Modest Numbers

The world of prediction markets is constantly evolving, and a new player named ADI Predictstreet is currently making quite a splash. Although the company's trading volume appears modest, exclusive information suggests a clever strategy. ADI Predictstreet is the official prediction market for the FIFA World Cup 2026, a partnership that has already brought the company significant attention despite its nascent status.

According to a source familiar with the matter, ADI Predictstreet processed approximately 126,000 trades in its first 18 days since launch. This figure may seem small compared to established players like Kalshi or Polymarket, which achieve billions in volume. However, the focus is not on short-term end-user business, but on building solid infrastructure and strategic partnerships.

Numbers and facts

In its first 18 days, ADI Predictstreet recorded approximately 126,000 trades. An insider commented on this as "demonstrating early consumer demand despite the platform's nascency." The partnership with FIFA for the 2026 World Cup cost ADI Predictstreet 150 million dollars. This high sum reflects the importance of the tournament, which is expected to reach over six billion viewers worldwide, following five billion at the 2022 World Cup. In comparison, Kalshi and Polymarket generated trading volumes of one billion and four billion dollars, respectively, for the World Cup Winner market alone. A recent Macquarie note from July 7 shows that Kalshi's prediction market volume exploded 75 percent month-on-month in June, from approximately 18 billion dollars to 33 billion dollars. The combined industry volume exceeded 50 billion dollars. On an annualized basis, this suggests a market that could reach over 500 billion dollars, with sports accounting for about 50 percent.

Background

ADI Predictstreet's strategic approach appears to be not to directly compete for end-users. Instead, the company focuses on owning the infrastructure and partnership layer to create long-term value. The source emphasized:

"Rather than competing for end users, ADI Predictstreet is betting that owning the infrastructure and partnership layer is the path to long-term value creation."

This strategy has already shown impressive results. ADI Predictstreet was able to quickly attract a number of prominent partners, including Kalshi, Fanatics Markets, BetConstruct, Matchbook, and DAZN. These alliances are intended to accelerate international growth and lay the foundation for future technological innovations. The partnership with Kalshi is described as "long-term" and aims to boost global expansion. This involves not only the FIFA World Cup but also a broader range of prediction markets, including other sports, culture, and entertainment.

Of particular interest is the connection to Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, head of Abu Dhabi's largest sovereign wealth fund, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), and National Security Adviser of the United Arab Emirates. His far-reaching connections could explain how ADI Predictstreet was able to assemble such an impressive array of partners so quickly. The company, part of International Holding Company, also plans to expand beyond football into other prediction markets through regulatory approval in Gibraltar.

Why it matters for German players

For German players, prediction markets like ADI Predictstreet are currently of limited relevance. The German gambling market is strictly regulated by the German Interstate Treaty on Gambling 2021 (GlüStV 2021). This treaty sets clear rules that do not currently cover this form of gambling offered by ADI Predictstreet in Germany. The GlüStV 2021 focuses on classic online casino games and sports betting, but with very specific restrictions. These include a stake limit of one euro per spin for slots and a monthly deposit limit of 1,000 euros for all providers combined. These limits are designed to protect players and prevent excessive gambling behavior.

Providers must also be on the so-called GGL whitelist of the Joint Gambling Authority of the Federal States (GGL) to legally offer their services in Germany. The LUGAS system (cross-state gambling supervision system) monitors compliance with these requirements, including the deposit limit and the self-exclusion system OASIS. Prediction markets in their current form are more likely to fall under the regulation of financial products in Germany or are not clearly categorized, which complicates their legality under the GlüStV. Whether and when the GGL will regulate such markets is currently not foreseeable. Until then, they generally remain gray or black markets for German players without legal protection in Germany.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

For operators of GGL-licensed casinos in Germany, this development primarily means one thing: the need to continue to strictly adhere to existing regulations and not drift into unregulated market segments. The focus is on providing slot machines and sports betting within the narrow limits of the GlüStV 2021. Integration of prediction markets into the offering is currently not possible and would jeopardize the GGL license. The GGL monitors the German market very closely to ensure player protection and to curb illegal offerings. Every licensed operator operates within a clearly defined framework, which currently makes innovations in this area rather impossible. The deposit limit, the stake limit per spin, and the connection to LUGAS and OASIS are central pillars of regulation that are intended to provide security for players in Germany.