Netherlands: Online Gambling Tax Hike Misses Revenue Target

What happened

The Dutch gambling tax, increased in 2024, was expected to bring significantly more money into state coffers. However, the reality is different. For 2025, only two million euros in additional revenue are expected. This is a drop in the ocean considering the expectations and bureaucratic effort involved. This figure is shockingly low and shows that the government's forecasts were completely overblown. Apparently, calculations in The Hague were way off.

The ambitious goals were thoroughly missed. Here at the lustich.de editorial office, we asked ourselves: Was this foreseeable? Some experts had already warned that excessive taxation could strengthen the black market. Such results should make governments attentive. A mere tax increase is rarely the solution if it is not accompanied by other measures. We observe this repeatedly, not just in the Netherlands.

Background

Since July 1, 2024, a new tax rate for online gambling applies in the Netherlands. It increased from 29 percent to 30.5 percent. The government justified this step by the desire to generate higher revenues to finance public spending. It was an attempt to make the growing online gambling segment contribute more. But the plan failed. Experts fear that some players have shifted to unregulated offerings. This is a known pattern in regions that introduce strict regulations and high taxes without simultaneously offering attractive legal alternatives. That is a delicate balancing act.

In Germany, we also have a debate about the level of gambling tax. Our 5.3 percent model on stakes is controversial. Many industry representatives consider it too high and see it as a threat to the legal market. In the Netherlands, we now see a concrete example of the consequences of excessive demands. The Dutch model may be calculated differently as a percentage of gross gaming revenue, but the principle remains the same: the balance between revenue and channeling players into the legal market is fragile and difficult to strike. This is a fine line.

Why it matters for German players

For German players, the Dutch situation may seem irrelevant at first glance. But that is not the case. Every look across the border gives us important insights for the gambling market here. What happens in neighboring countries can be blueprints or warnings for our own regulatory policy. A failure in the Netherlands strengthens the arguments of those who warn against excessively high taxes in Germany.

Should Germany follow the Dutch example and further increase the gambling tax, similar problems could arise. The German online gambling market is still young in its regulated form. Players are looking for fair conditions and reputable providers. An excessive burden on providers would inevitably affect players. Either through worse payout ratios or by providers migrating from the regulated market. Both are highly problematic for player protection. We want a stable market with high player loyalty to GGL-licensed providers.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

For online casinos like jackpotpiraten.de, etipwin.de, crazybuzzer.de, merkur-slots.de, and loewen-play.de, such news from the Netherlands is of great importance. It shows how sensitive the market reacts to tax changes. Current GGL-licensed providers operate under strict conditions and pay their taxes in Germany. They depend on a stable regulatory environment. A discussion about further increasing levies could massively impact their profitability.

Should German politics pursue similar ideas to the Netherlands, there would be a risk that legal offers become less attractive. Players could increasingly switch back to foreign providers without a German license. This would be a severe setback for player protection and channeling. The success of the German State Treaty on Gambling largely depends on legal offers remaining competitive. We at lustich.de believe that one should learn from the mistakes of others. The Netherlands provides a clear lesson here.