BetMGM CEO Slams CFTC Casino Rules as Cosmetic Measures

The regulatory battle over prediction markets in the United States is intensifying. Adam Greenblatt, CEO of BetMGM, delivered sharp criticism regarding the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) recent moves. During a Q3 earnings call on October 13, he described the agency's efforts to exclude casino-style products from its jurisdiction as merely cosmetic. According to Greenblatt, the risks posed by these markets to traditional, regulated gambling have not been eliminated but simply postponed. He suggested these actions are a desperate survival tactic by regulators trying to maintain clear boundaries in a rapidly evolving landscape.

Greenblatt specifically addressed the CFTC rule changes announced on October 9. These include an interim final rule establishing that casino-style gambling products, such as sports betting and casino games, do not fall under the definition of a swap. While the CFTC intended this to clarify that such activities are outside its derivatives oversight, the BetMGM chief remains skeptical. He believes these regulations could be easily reversed or modified in the future once political or legal pressure shifts. For Greenblatt, it is only a matter of time before these products reappear in different forms on prediction exchanges.

Numbers and facts

Financial performance at BetMGM remains strong despite these regulatory headwinds. The company reported net revenue of $710 million for the third quarter, representing a 7 percent year-over-year increase. More notably, adjusted EBITDA soared by 112 percent to $86 million. Although the number of average monthly active players dipped by 3 percent, Greenblatt noted that the company is strategically focusing on high-return markets. The iGaming division alone contributed $483 million to the quarterly revenue. Consequently, BetMGM is scaling back investments in states that only offer online sports betting without casino games, as those markets yield lower margins.

In contrast, prediction markets are experiencing a massive boom. Data from Aldrin Research indicates that the volume of sports and parlay betting on these exchanges grew by approximately 72 percent to $68.2 billion in the 30 days leading up to September 29. This rapid growth explains why established operators like BetMGM are closely monitoring the situation and calling for more consistent, stringent regulation.

Background

The heart of the conflict lies in how prediction markets like Kalshi are legally defined. While these platforms argue they offer financial derivatives based on event outcomes, gambling operators and many state governments view them as unregulated wagering. Greenblatt expects the U.S. Supreme Court to resolve this ambiguity during its 2026 and 2027 term. He pointed out that federal courts have recently leaned toward state authority. For instance, on September 25, the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that Ohio and Tennessee could enforce their gambling laws against Kalshi.

"I don't think the risk is gone. I think if anything, the risk has been suspended for a period of time. I think what's happening now are purely cosmetic measures for survival." - Adam Greenblatt, CEO of BetMGM

Why it matters for German players

For players in Germany, this U.S. debate mirrors the strict regulatory environment established by the Interstate Treaty on Gambling 2021 (GlüStV 2021). While the U.S. still debates definitions, the German Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder (GGL) has already set clear standards. Anyone participating in online slots or sports betting in Germany must rely on licensed providers on the GGL whitelist. This ensures protection via the LUGAS system, which monitors the cross-provider monthly deposit limit of 1,000 euros. Furthermore, Germany enforces a strict 1-euro limit per spin for virtual slots. Prediction markets, as they exist in the U.S., would struggle to meet these rigorous player protection standards, offering German players a level of legal certainty that is still being litigated in the American courts.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

German GGL-licensed casinos can learn from the U.S. situation that a clear focus on iGaming quality is more important than sheer volume in sports betting. BetMGM’s shift away from sports-only states toward the lucrative casino sector validates the path of German licensees who build long-term trust through high safety standards and certified software. While unregulated and illegal providers continue to invest aggressively, player protection remains the key differentiator for legal operators in Germany. Adhering to GGL mandates not only protects players from debt but also secures a stable, legally sound business foundation, far removed from the "cosmetic" uncertainties currently plaguing the U.S. market.